Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 2.8 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 2.8 percentage points.

The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 1.1 percentage points less and Trump has 1.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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