The Time-for-change model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 4.5 percentage points less and Trump has 4.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.