Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 4.6 percentage points less and Trump has 4.6 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.