Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will collect 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, we recommend to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 1.1 percentage points less and Trump has 1.1 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.