Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 55.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 44.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.4 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 1.9 percentage points more and Trump has 1.9 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.