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Issue-index model: Clinton is in the lead


The Issue-index model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will collect 55.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 44.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 1.3 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.3 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 2.0 percentage points more and Trump has 2.0 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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