Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead

The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 4.8 percentage points less and Trump has 4.8 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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