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Fiscal model model shows Trump in the lead


The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.0 Prozentpunkt, while Trump did better with 1.0 Prozentpunkt.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 4.9 percentage points less and Trump has 4.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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