Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will collect 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 5.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 5.2 percentage points.
The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 9.2 percentage points less and Trump has 9.2 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.