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Fair model: Trump with clear lead


The Fair model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 5.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 5.2 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 9.1 percentage points less and Trump has 9.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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