Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 4.8 percentage points, while Trump did better with 4.8 percentage points.

The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 9.1 percentage points less and Trump has 9.1 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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