DeSart model: Trump with small lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton and 51.9% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
In comparison to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.7 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.7 percentage points.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 4.9 percentage points less and Trump has 4.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.