DeSart model: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 48.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 1.1 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.1 percentage points.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
Clinton has 5.0 percentage points less and Trump has 5.0 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.