Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Electoral-cycle model
The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton and 51.4% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was predicted to collect 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed worse with 0.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.2 percentage points.
The Electoral-cycle model compared with PollyVote's forecast
Clinton has 4.5 percentage points less and Trump has 4.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.