Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%. In comparison, on August 14 Trump was still predicted to garner 0.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 2.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 2.6 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 1.9 percentage points less and Trump has 1.9 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.