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Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest Lockerbie model


The Lockerbie model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 1.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 1.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 2.7 percentage points less and Trump has 2.7 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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