Bio-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin
The Bio-index model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In comparison, on August 14, Clinton was predicted to gain only 41.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single index models should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 5.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 5.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 5.8 percentage points more and Trump has 5.8 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.