Bio-index model shows Clinton in the lead
The Bio-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 58.8% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 41.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 5.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 5.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
Clinton has 5.8 percentage points more and Trump has 5.8 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.