Bio-index model: Clinton with clear lead
The Bio-index model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, don't focus too much on the results of a single index model. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 5.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 5.1 percentage points.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
Clinton has 5.6 percentage points more and Trump has 5.6 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.