538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.7%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, since they can contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.1 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.1 percentage points.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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