SusquehannaSusquehanna published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
SusquehannaSusquehanna poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4, among a random sample of 772 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 55.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Relative to her numbers in the SusquehannaSusquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.