Results of a new poll conducted by NYT Upshot were spread. The poll asked participants from Virginia for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
In Virginia, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
NYT Upshot poll results
This poll was conducted, among a random sample of 0 participants.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 6.6% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.0 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.0 percentage points. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.0% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Virginia.