Results of a new poll carried out by Suffolk University were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk University poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27. A total of 500 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.