Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 30 to August 7 among 815 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.1%. In comparison to her numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.