Ohio: New CBS News/YouGov poll shows Trump behind by 4 points
CBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have historically achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio sees Clinton at 51.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.