Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.
Suffolk University poll results
The results show that the two candidates have the same level of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 18 to July 20 among 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points, which means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.