PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump can draw on the same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 22 to July 24 among 1334 registered voters. The error margin is +/-2.7 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 1.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 1.0 percentage points less and Trump has 1.0 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.