Polly currently predicts a national two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. The PollyVote's component methods widely agree on who will win the election: Five expect a victory for Clinton and one expects that Trump will win.
According to the econometric models Trump is currently leading with 51.2%.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 48.8% of the vote.
When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is particularly low with 48.8% in econometric models. Since 2004 George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, econometric models expected a vote share of 44.9% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.