Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton will achieve 52.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 47.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

In comparison to the average results of other index models Clinton performed worse with 1.6 percentage points, while Trump did better with 1.6 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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