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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. In comparison, on August 16 Trump was predicted to gain 47.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, we recommend to use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less and Trump has 0.9 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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