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DeSart model: Trump with very clear lead in Wyoming


The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 25.4% of the two-party vote share in Wyoming, while Trump will end up with 74.6%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Wyoming econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 71.2%. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 70.8% in Wyoming. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 27.7 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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