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West Virginia: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 46.0% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 54.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in West Virginia has Trump at 60.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.4 percentage points better.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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