The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 46.0% of the two-party vote share in West Virginia, whereas Trump will end up with 54.0%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in West Virginia has Trump at 60.4% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 6.4 percentage points better.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 7.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 61.9% in West Virginia. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 7.1 percentage points higher.