The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will receive 46.8% of the two-party vote share in Texas, while Trump will end up with 53.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models often include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 57.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Texas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.8 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Texas, which is 2.8 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model.