Results of a new poll carried out by Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from April 25 to May 11 with 1001 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they often include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 54.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Tennessee. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.