Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to May 11, among a random sample of 1001 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Tennessee polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 54.5%. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt University poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.4% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. That is, the PollyVote is 0.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is negligible.