Results of a new poll carried out by SusquehannaSusquehanna were published. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
SusquehannaSusquehanna poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 31 and August 4. The sample size was 772 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.2%. In comparison to her numbers in the SusquehannaSusquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is negligible.