Suffolk University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 25 to July 27 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is insignificant.