PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from November 7 to November 8, among a random sample of 1290 registered voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.7 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in South Carolina has Trump at 51.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.