DeSart model: Clinton in South Carolina trails by a clear margin

The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump in South Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of South Carolina econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 55.7%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina, which is 4.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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