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Florida: Rothschild model shows Trump in the lead


The Rothschild model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will receive 24.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, whereas Trump will win 76.0%.

Historically, Florida has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the recommended strategy use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Florida econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.5%. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 25.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 26.6 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 29.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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