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Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Oregon

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The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 95.0% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, whereas Trump will win 5.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, because they often include substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 54.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Oregon. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 40.9 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 42.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.8% in Oregon. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 41.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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