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Washington: Rothschild model shows Clinton in the lead


The Rothschild model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 95.0% of the two-party vote share in Washington, while Trump will win 5.0%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Washington econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.1%. Relative to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 40.9 percentage points lower.

The Rothschild model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 55.9% of the two-party vote in Washington, which is 39.1 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 41.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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