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Rothschild model: Clinton in Pennsylvania trails by a small margin


The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton and 52.0% for Trump in Pennsylvania.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 48.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Pennsylvania. Compared to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania, which is 5.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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