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Rothschild model in Ohio: Trump with very clear lead

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The Rothschild model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 32.0% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 68.0%.

Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Ohio econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 49.8%. In comparison to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 18.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 18.7 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 21.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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