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Rothschild model in North Carolina: Trump with very clear lead


The Rothschild model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 10.0% for Clinton and 90.0% for Trump in North Carolina.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, one should consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of North Carolina econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. Relative to his numbers in the Rothschild model Trump's econometric model average is 36.8 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in North Carolina, which is 39.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 43.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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