Rothschild model: Trump in New Jersey trails by a very clear margin
The Rothschild model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 99.0% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, whereas Trump will end up with 1.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in New Jersey. In comparison to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 41.7 percentage points worse.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey, which is 41.4 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 45.9 percentage points higher.