Rothschild model in Montana: Trump with very clear lead

The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will end up with 99.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 41.9 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 52.1 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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