Rothschild model in Montana: Trump with very clear lead
The Rothschild model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to this model, Clinton will collect 1.0% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will end up with 99.0%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
If we look at an average of Montana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.3%. This value is 41.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 41.9 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 52.1 percentage points higher.