Rothschild model: Clinton with very clear lead in Michigan
The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model predicts that Clinton will achieve 87.0% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will win 13.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Michigan econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.8%. This value is 33.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 33.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Michigan. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 33.9 percentage points higher.