Rothschild model in Iowa: Clinton with clear lead

The Rothschild model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 57.0% for Clinton and 43.0% for Trump in Iowa.

Iowa is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically gained similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome here is regarded important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Iowa has Clinton at 52.4% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Rothschild model Clinton's econometric model average is 4.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Rothschild model for Clinton are thus 5.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 51.2% in Iowa. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 3.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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