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Rothschild model: Trump in Illinois trails by a very clear margin


The Rothschild model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model forecasts that Clinton will obtain 99.0% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will end up with 1.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Illinois econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. This value is 45.0 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Rothschild model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 57.3% of the two-party vote in Illinois, which is 41.7 percentage points below the results of the Rothschild model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 45.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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